* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 88 92 95 99 100 102 102 98 95 88 83 V (KT) LAND 75 82 88 92 95 99 100 102 102 98 95 88 83 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 87 90 92 93 93 94 92 88 83 77 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 16 23 22 18 19 8 2 4 2 5 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -3 3 4 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 71 67 53 37 43 29 20 175 182 327 305 29 38 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.8 28.5 27.9 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 146 147 152 149 143 132 134 133 129 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 84 85 83 83 79 77 74 71 65 58 55 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 29 30 31 32 34 36 38 38 40 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 48 59 71 75 76 82 87 73 81 79 107 111 128 200 MB DIV 131 105 106 139 108 112 89 142 75 -2 -24 -28 -45 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 -3 -1 -1 2 5 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1270 1336 1406 1420 1423 1408 1393 1370 1384 1461 1596 1685 1757 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.7 13.9 15.1 16.0 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.7 114.7 115.6 116.5 117.9 119.2 120.4 121.7 123.2 124.9 126.4 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 19 17 21 15 13 6 3 4 2 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -3. 0. 3. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 13. 18. 19. 22. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 20. 24. 25. 27. 27. 23. 20. 13. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 10.7 112.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.13 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.3% 34.4% 24.9% 17.4% 12.2% 17.9% 16.4% 8.0% Logistic: 31.4% 51.5% 18.1% 15.3% 7.8% 9.2% 4.4% 2.1% Bayesian: 37.8% 54.6% 61.3% 43.0% 20.2% 29.3% 4.5% 0.1% Consensus: 31.8% 46.8% 34.8% 25.2% 13.4% 18.8% 8.4% 3.4% DTOPS: 46.0% 59.0% 52.0% 44.0% 29.0% 14.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX