* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 74 77 84 90 95 96 95 95 91 88 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 74 77 84 90 95 96 95 95 91 88 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 65 68 70 74 80 85 90 91 89 84 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 19 25 26 16 10 2 4 2 3 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 1 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 60 75 67 44 39 34 18 103 124 286 35 46 55 SST (C) 28.7 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.6 26.8 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 145 144 146 146 151 147 144 139 129 131 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -53.3 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 83 83 83 81 82 79 78 74 71 62 55 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 32 32 33 35 35 36 38 40 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR 31 46 59 68 76 74 78 74 87 71 93 98 110 200 MB DIV 133 126 114 114 104 109 108 109 90 9 -23 -49 -28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -6 -4 -2 0 4 6 3 0 LAND (KM) 1154 1229 1312 1363 1374 1362 1350 1354 1346 1382 1470 1556 1643 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.8 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.2 17.6 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.7 113.8 114.8 115.7 117.3 118.6 119.7 120.7 122.1 123.9 125.4 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 7 9 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 26 19 17 15 14 8 6 2 3 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 18. 21. 20. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 17. 24. 30. 35. 36. 35. 35. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.1 111.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.13 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 28.1% 23.3% 16.2% 10.8% 17.2% 17.1% 9.4% Logistic: 7.0% 20.4% 4.6% 2.9% 1.0% 2.8% 4.5% 2.4% Bayesian: 3.0% 4.2% 4.3% 1.7% 0.3% 2.6% 1.4% 0.2% Consensus: 9.5% 17.6% 10.7% 6.9% 4.0% 7.5% 7.7% 4.0% DTOPS: 29.0% 56.0% 28.0% 16.0% 9.0% 20.0% 13.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX