* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 69 75 81 87 95 103 105 106 102 97 91 V (KT) LAND 60 63 69 75 81 87 95 103 105 106 102 97 91 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 66 69 72 77 84 92 96 96 92 85 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 12 19 22 19 11 4 6 4 4 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 4 1 1 -1 -3 -5 -4 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 37 74 83 77 57 36 17 36 54 50 49 73 29 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.1 27.6 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 143 144 146 148 151 145 139 130 128 129 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 83 81 79 73 73 71 67 63 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 29 31 32 31 34 38 39 41 40 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 25 31 42 53 62 81 73 80 75 73 70 77 68 200 MB DIV 73 116 116 109 122 99 133 100 85 41 -5 13 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 -3 -6 -3 0 -2 4 8 14 3 LAND (KM) 1067 1139 1220 1273 1320 1326 1312 1314 1320 1329 1378 1446 1516 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.7 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.2 17.7 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.6 112.7 113.7 114.7 116.5 117.8 119.0 120.3 121.5 122.8 124.0 125.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 27 26 19 14 15 11 7 3 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 25.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 7. 9. 16. 20. 23. 22. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 8. 4. 1. -2. -3. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 16. 21. 27. 35. 43. 45. 46. 42. 37. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.3 110.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 29.5% 25.0% 17.5% 11.8% 17.7% 17.3% 9.5% Logistic: 4.3% 14.2% 3.3% 1.9% 0.3% 1.8% 4.3% 3.2% Bayesian: 2.9% 8.2% 4.3% 1.4% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.9% Consensus: 8.5% 17.3% 10.9% 6.9% 4.1% 6.9% 7.4% 4.5% DTOPS: 26.0% 75.0% 59.0% 40.0% 29.0% 22.0% 8.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX