* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 69 76 83 91 96 99 103 104 102 100 96 V (KT) LAND 60 63 69 76 83 91 96 99 103 104 102 100 96 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 72 76 83 89 94 95 93 91 86 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 10 17 23 17 15 7 4 3 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 4 3 0 0 -1 -2 -1 4 11 11 SHEAR DIR 29 23 26 70 72 38 27 27 19 68 7 59 74 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.2 27.9 28.2 28.7 28.6 27.3 27.4 26.6 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 147 143 146 151 150 136 137 128 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -51.8 -52.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 80 81 84 83 83 83 75 76 72 69 65 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 29 31 34 35 37 38 41 41 41 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 30 39 50 78 77 83 81 83 75 73 74 200 MB DIV 63 64 116 92 106 124 109 82 61 74 19 14 -18 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 -1 -2 -5 -3 1 2 0 6 16 8 LAND (KM) 961 1029 1101 1159 1226 1286 1269 1259 1259 1257 1274 1318 1368 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.4 13.3 14.4 15.5 16.4 17.2 17.7 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 110.0 111.1 112.2 113.3 115.1 116.5 117.9 119.2 120.4 121.5 122.5 123.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 24 21 25 27 17 14 14 8 8 5 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 24.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 23. 25. 25. 25. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -3. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 16. 23. 31. 36. 39. 43. 44. 42. 40. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.5 108.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.47 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.8% 31.3% 26.5% 18.9% 12.6% 18.7% 17.3% 9.1% Logistic: 6.0% 28.9% 8.6% 5.0% 0.8% 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% Bayesian: 7.0% 25.4% 16.1% 6.5% 0.6% 8.9% 9.1% 7.4% Consensus: 10.6% 28.5% 17.0% 10.1% 4.7% 10.1% 9.9% 6.6% DTOPS: 32.0% 83.0% 71.0% 51.0% 40.0% 72.0% 34.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX