* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 66 70 75 85 92 97 101 100 100 99 94 V (KT) LAND 60 62 66 70 75 85 92 97 101 100 100 99 94 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 70 73 81 87 93 96 94 92 87 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 17 16 19 19 14 6 1 1 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 3 24 34 54 53 56 30 19 38 18 231 13 39 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.5 27.9 28.8 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 153 151 149 143 152 140 137 129 129 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 78 79 81 83 83 83 79 73 71 65 59 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 25 28 31 34 37 38 39 40 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR 23 23 23 29 38 72 94 86 93 84 90 88 86 200 MB DIV 87 58 56 73 67 111 107 119 88 71 52 32 -12 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -3 -1 -1 -4 -7 -6 0 0 5 6 7 LAND (KM) 906 986 1061 1128 1205 1312 1285 1266 1275 1265 1282 1302 1327 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.9 12.9 14.0 15.0 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.2 110.3 111.5 112.6 114.5 116.1 117.5 118.8 120.0 121.3 122.3 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 27 20 22 28 22 13 14 7 5 4 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 29. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 32. 37. 41. 40. 40. 39. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.5 108.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.20 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 22.8% 20.2% 14.3% 9.4% 15.4% 0.0% 8.0% Logistic: 1.5% 10.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 2.8% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 11.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 2.6% 0.4% 3.1% Consensus: 5.5% 14.6% 8.6% 5.5% 3.4% 6.3% 1.1% 4.9% DTOPS: 33.0% 79.0% 59.0% 47.0% 38.0% 65.0% 27.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX