* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 71 78 95 105 105 103 98 99 92 86 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 71 78 95 105 105 103 98 99 92 86 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 71 81 91 94 95 94 92 90 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 15 14 23 25 16 10 4 3 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 4 6 2 1 5 -1 -2 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 342 1 16 25 52 67 38 20 21 28 53 299 41 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.1 28.6 28.4 27.4 27.4 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 151 150 153 150 145 150 148 137 136 129 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 81 82 85 84 82 77 75 69 66 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 27 28 33 37 37 38 38 41 40 39 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 25 28 37 58 93 80 87 83 83 71 77 200 MB DIV 94 77 62 59 85 142 122 101 87 81 56 2 -2 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -4 -3 0 -1 -5 2 1 0 2 7 4 LAND (KM) 825 903 986 1052 1123 1242 1296 1274 1250 1250 1242 1267 1308 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.7 12.3 13.3 14.5 15.6 16.5 17.1 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.9 109.0 110.2 111.3 113.4 115.1 116.6 117.9 119.2 120.3 121.3 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 33 26 21 21 28 17 14 11 4 5 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 44.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 18. 23. 23. 28. 25. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 20. 16. 8. 1. -4. -7. -10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 40. 50. 50. 48. 43. 44. 37. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.6 106.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 29.5% 25.6% 17.6% 11.8% 19.8% 16.7% 9.3% Logistic: 8.6% 33.5% 10.2% 6.4% 1.4% 5.0% 3.9% 5.0% Bayesian: 4.7% 24.0% 12.2% 6.4% 0.7% 10.7% 5.7% 2.0% Consensus: 10.6% 29.0% 16.0% 10.1% 4.7% 11.8% 8.7% 5.5% DTOPS: 36.0% 67.0% 47.0% 31.0% 17.0% 73.0% 56.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX