* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 09/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 75 84 98 104 107 106 103 103 96 92 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 75 84 98 104 107 106 103 103 96 92 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 72 78 88 94 96 95 94 94 93 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 9 15 23 25 20 10 11 5 0 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 5 1 3 2 -1 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 353 6 353 29 32 62 44 21 15 43 344 59 5 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.7 28.9 28.0 27.3 27.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 151 151 150 151 149 141 153 144 136 133 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 81 81 84 82 81 74 73 67 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 27 30 34 35 38 40 40 43 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 18 21 28 54 94 99 89 101 77 90 96 200 MB DIV 68 73 68 57 79 84 134 122 110 90 72 57 37 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 1 -3 -2 4 3 LAND (KM) 781 845 916 997 1074 1199 1314 1314 1276 1254 1232 1261 1321 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.5 13.6 14.8 16.0 16.7 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.9 108.0 109.1 110.2 112.4 114.3 115.9 117.1 118.3 119.5 120.8 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 32 25 19 27 23 14 14 9 3 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 40.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 13. 19. 24. 25. 30. 27. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 18. 14. 7. 1. -3. -7. -9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 20. 29. 43. 49. 52. 51. 48. 48. 41. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.6 105.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.26 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.8% 52.3% 34.9% 23.4% 14.6% 22.3% 19.5% 10.3% Logistic: 14.1% 37.7% 15.6% 9.8% 2.3% 6.3% 4.8% 6.2% Bayesian: 12.4% 56.0% 38.4% 20.5% 9.1% 30.6% 17.5% 2.5% Consensus: 17.1% 48.7% 29.6% 17.9% 8.7% 19.7% 13.9% 6.3% DTOPS: 35.0% 83.0% 64.0% 38.0% 34.0% 79.0% 55.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX