* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 09/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 65 74 84 104 115 117 106 106 103 100 94 V (KT) LAND 50 56 65 74 84 104 115 117 106 106 103 100 94 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 63 70 78 94 107 108 104 105 103 100 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 8 9 19 25 27 16 12 3 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 2 4 1 -2 0 -3 -3 0 7 SHEAR DIR 12 7 2 353 50 66 46 20 19 41 42 153 197 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.0 28.8 28.3 27.1 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 152 153 152 154 150 144 152 147 134 134 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.6 -51.7 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 76 80 82 82 81 78 79 73 68 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 23 25 26 32 35 38 34 39 40 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 15 14 18 42 68 91 71 98 83 82 73 200 MB DIV 47 55 77 75 68 109 124 128 116 127 106 89 47 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 -3 -1 0 0 -1 2 9 LAND (KM) 690 735 793 869 948 1094 1203 1255 1252 1240 1207 1202 1244 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.6 14.7 16.0 16.9 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.9 107.0 108.2 109.3 111.4 113.3 115.1 116.7 118.0 119.1 120.2 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 38 43 37 34 24 30 17 14 10 3 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 55.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 7. 13. 15. 22. 21. 28. 30. 33. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 25. 20. 10. 2. -5. -10. -14. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 24. 34. 54. 65. 67. 56. 56. 53. 50. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.1 104.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 8.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.33 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -6.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.0% 60.1% 42.9% 34.5% 23.0% 41.0% 22.5% 11.5% Logistic: 33.3% 71.0% 45.8% 33.6% 15.5% 24.1% 13.9% 13.6% Bayesian: 26.3% 81.4% 67.6% 44.9% 13.9% 69.8% 39.4% 21.5% Consensus: 28.5% 70.8% 52.1% 37.6% 17.5% 45.0% 25.3% 15.5% DTOPS: 67.0% 96.0% 92.0% 66.0% 67.0% 91.0% 76.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX