* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 09/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 59 68 78 99 113 113 105 99 99 95 92 V (KT) LAND 45 51 59 68 78 99 113 113 105 99 99 95 92 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 63 70 87 101 105 100 98 100 99 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 7 7 12 26 28 21 14 9 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 1 6 6 5 -1 -2 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 5 13 15 15 16 43 64 46 18 23 54 24 326 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.2 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 156 152 152 149 148 151 153 155 145 138 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 77 78 79 82 84 79 77 73 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 20 21 27 33 33 32 32 35 37 39 850 MB ENV VOR 8 7 8 6 8 19 53 97 88 103 111 83 76 200 MB DIV 57 59 61 89 73 103 122 123 127 93 109 74 29 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -5 -5 0 0 -2 4 -3 -2 -1 2 LAND (KM) 661 700 740 810 884 1036 1167 1260 1244 1238 1237 1221 1207 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.5 11.5 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.2 16.2 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.8 107.0 108.1 110.2 112.2 114.0 115.7 117.2 118.5 119.6 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 31 31 29 25 27 28 14 13 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 57.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 21. 24. 28. 29. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 26. 21. 10. 2. -5. -10. -14. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 23. 33. 54. 68. 68. 60. 54. 54. 50. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.0 103.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.6% 54.7% 35.2% 22.7% 14.7% 38.5% 31.8% 12.4% Logistic: 31.3% 75.6% 52.3% 39.3% 26.2% 38.9% 18.5% 16.5% Bayesian: 23.8% 82.4% 65.5% 45.5% 37.2% 78.0% 60.4% 4.1% Consensus: 25.2% 70.9% 51.0% 35.8% 26.0% 51.8% 36.9% 11.0% DTOPS: 54.0% 96.0% 90.0% 62.0% 66.0% 93.0% 77.0% 43.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX