* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 09/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 58 67 87 105 111 104 102 99 94 89 V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 58 67 87 105 111 104 102 99 94 89 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 57 73 91 104 104 102 102 98 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 10 8 8 16 24 23 14 17 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 7 2 3 0 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 19 349 8 14 18 32 56 42 30 24 54 20 18 SST (C) 29.4 28.8 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 158 158 154 149 152 155 159 154 147 141 138 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 79 78 80 83 84 82 80 77 75 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 17 19 23 29 34 31 34 35 36 35 850 MB ENV VOR 9 1 0 2 0 5 24 64 82 75 100 78 54 200 MB DIV 56 62 62 68 85 66 106 153 139 98 74 56 77 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 -4 -3 0 LAND (KM) 596 632 658 710 773 892 1006 1109 1137 1139 1153 1165 1148 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.5 13.6 14.5 15.5 16.2 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.8 104.8 105.8 106.8 108.8 110.6 112.5 114.5 116.2 117.7 118.7 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 27 34 34 34 29 33 27 14 8 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 57.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 22. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 23. 28. 30. 30. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 26. 21. 10. 2. -5. -10. -14. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 18. 27. 47. 65. 71. 64. 62. 59. 54. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.2 102.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 36.4% 27.6% 19.1% 13.0% 23.3% 31.5% 27.8% Logistic: 19.4% 64.3% 39.5% 27.5% 17.2% 38.9% 27.6% 20.7% Bayesian: 2.1% 47.5% 28.7% 12.2% 7.7% 38.6% 45.3% 58.2% Consensus: 12.9% 49.4% 31.9% 19.6% 12.6% 33.6% 34.8% 35.6% DTOPS: 27.0% 79.0% 65.0% 40.0% 23.0% 79.0% 76.0% 47.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX