* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 09/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 49 56 71 85 97 100 99 101 102 94 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 49 56 71 85 97 100 99 101 102 94 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 60 76 92 98 98 97 95 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 6 9 9 11 11 19 14 9 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 1 8 2 6 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 22 32 37 13 22 29 37 29 41 28 24 75 346 SST (C) 29.6 29.0 29.0 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 154 154 159 158 151 150 153 157 154 150 143 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 80 79 79 79 80 79 77 78 78 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 15 17 22 28 29 30 32 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 -5 -7 -4 -4 6 42 84 85 79 76 57 200 MB DIV 28 42 51 50 66 66 65 135 152 100 99 50 18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -12 -6 -11 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 594 614 638 667 711 829 959 1094 1201 1189 1149 1167 1195 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.3 12.9 13.9 15.2 15.9 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.2 104.1 105.1 106.0 108.1 110.0 112.1 114.3 116.1 117.3 118.3 119.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 23 30 35 33 36 30 28 14 10 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 31.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 20. 24. 26. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 10. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 21. 36. 50. 62. 65. 64. 66. 67. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 102.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 09/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.67 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 30.5% 25.8% 17.7% 12.2% 22.2% 24.0% 36.1% Logistic: 16.4% 60.6% 36.0% 22.2% 15.1% 38.6% 47.8% 35.1% Bayesian: 2.7% 66.7% 37.7% 14.1% 5.5% 53.6% 62.6% 15.7% Consensus: 11.5% 52.6% 33.1% 18.0% 10.9% 38.1% 44.8% 29.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 39.0% 29.0% 18.0% 6.0% 65.0% 78.0% 75.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 09/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX