* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TINA EP212016 11/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 31 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 39 38 39 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 217 215 218 228 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 161 160 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 48 46 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -6 -6 1 2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 31 20 16 10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 4 0 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 285 312 340 397 433 448 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.2 108.6 109.2 109.8 110.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 13 14 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -16. -24. -34. -40. -45. -45. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -26. -34. -40. -45. -48. -49. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.6 107.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212016 TINA 11/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 177.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.93 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212016 TINA 11/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##