* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/18/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 47 35 28 29 30 25 27 23 29 24 26 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -3 -1 -1 -6 -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 282 284 277 281 294 302 293 290 268 262 252 240 253 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 148 148 147 149 148 149 150 149 150 149 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 56 55 56 57 57 56 51 49 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 38 33 43 49 47 53 55 51 38 18 -5 -45 -66 200 MB DIV -9 -12 8 -15 -16 0 12 3 -1 -25 -33 -3 -15 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -8 -4 -3 -2 -3 -1 1 5 1 3 LAND (KM) 1934 1977 1989 2004 2028 2084 3968 3979 3999 2053 1920 1781 1616 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.2 21.9 21.4 21.1 20.8 20.6 20.4 20.3 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 178.6 179.0 179.1 179.2 179.4 179.9 180.2 180.4 180.2 179.6 178.4 177.1 175.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 22 24 23 24 26 29 25 22 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -12. -22. -29. -34. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.5 178.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/18/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/18/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX