* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 36 34 33 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 36 34 33 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 33 30 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 51 50 55 55 52 29 20 29 29 14 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -3 -7 0 5 0 -2 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 244 239 239 241 250 325 2 41 44 11 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.3 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.2 23.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 118 116 113 105 98 95 92 92 90 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.5 -55.0 -55.5 -55.6 -56.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.4 0.3 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 32 30 29 27 30 35 39 41 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 18 16 15 15 12 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -27 -27 -22 -35 -55 -95 -117 -144 -123 -117 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 15 -1 14 12 -9 -29 -53 -34 -8 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 9 9 15 13 12 7 3 -4 -2 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 644 711 783 883 981 1201 1331 1404 1440 1476 1528 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.4 28.2 29.2 30.1 32.2 33.4 34.2 34.7 35.2 35.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.6 154.8 155.0 155.0 154.9 154.7 154.5 154.8 155.4 156.2 157.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 8 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -15. -26. -39. -45. -48. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 3. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -5. -11. -14. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -9. -11. -12. -17. -29. -47. -58. -67. -68. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.6 154.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 400.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX