* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 112 105 95 76 63 53 45 41 33 28 20 V (KT) LAND 115 117 112 105 95 76 63 53 45 41 33 28 20 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 106 96 87 70 58 49 42 36 29 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 9 9 6 12 19 29 37 28 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 3 3 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 232 209 207 224 253 222 206 210 202 197 189 185 186 SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.3 24.8 23.9 23.4 23.0 22.6 22.2 21.9 22.0 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 120 116 111 101 96 92 87 82 78 79 81 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.8 2.0 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 56 52 50 49 46 44 40 39 40 41 41 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 21 20 19 18 17 17 19 18 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 15 27 23 20 -3 -6 -28 -14 -8 -7 -18 200 MB DIV 38 40 36 14 -4 11 24 16 19 22 3 27 8 700-850 TADV 3 7 4 7 13 15 11 6 9 11 8 3 3 LAND (KM) 1960 1968 1981 1982 1987 1907 1803 1733 1693 1599 1555 1537 1548 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.5 22.2 24.1 25.8 27.3 28.5 29.5 30.2 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.3 131.9 132.4 132.9 133.8 134.5 135.2 135.9 136.3 136.5 136.8 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 8 7 6 5 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -18. -31. -42. -52. -60. -66. -69. -72. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -3. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -3. -10. -20. -39. -52. -62. -70. -74. -82. -87. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.6 130.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 925.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/21/17 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 14 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##