* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 29 25 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 1 2 4 7 6 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 110 149 258 288 285 262 256 235 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.1 21.7 20.8 20.2 20.5 20.9 20.7 19.7 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 83 78 68 62 64 67 65 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 61 62 60 58 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 16 16 14 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -14 -22 -5 -3 15 11 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -18 1 -7 -1 7 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -4 -4 0 0 0 -5 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 582 648 684 732 779 776 730 646 543 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.6 29.2 30.2 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.5 122.3 123.0 123.7 124.5 124.7 124.8 124.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -17. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -19. -22. -23. -25. -27. -27. -28. -30. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.5 120.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX