* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 06/23/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 34 35 31 28 23 21 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 34 35 31 28 23 21 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 17 12 9 9 6 7 5 7 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 1 0 0 2 3 3 3 5 4 SHEAR DIR 49 50 48 34 25 15 336 319 289 266 202 191 195 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.4 27.6 26.9 25.4 22.8 22.0 22.1 22.5 22.8 22.8 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 141 134 118 91 83 83 86 89 89 88 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 66 63 64 64 60 51 45 44 42 40 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 11 12 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 34 41 33 40 34 42 44 48 61 47 41 26 200 MB DIV 34 55 58 35 46 9 6 -4 0 -18 -13 -21 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -7 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 2 1 7 LAND (KM) 1283 1229 1141 1015 886 768 786 982 1182 1370 1517 1599 1718 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 14.0 15.2 16.6 18.8 20.4 20.9 20.8 20.5 20.3 20.8 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 115.6 115.4 115.2 115.2 116.0 118.3 121.1 123.8 125.9 127.5 128.8 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 10 13 13 12 14 13 11 9 7 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 14 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 21. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 6. 3. -2. -4. -8. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 115.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 06/23/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 06/23/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING