* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP052018 06/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 2 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 336 288 274 278 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 23.1 22.7 22.5 22.3 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 93 89 87 85 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 47 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 16 19 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -15 -12 -18 -20 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 884 945 1011 1093 1164 1335 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.2 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.9 120.8 121.9 122.9 124.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. -26. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.8 119.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 DANIEL 06/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 218.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 DANIEL 06/26/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING