* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP052018 06/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 3 4 6 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 4 1 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 10 299 263 262 249 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.5 23.1 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 96 92 89 88 86 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 49 48 48 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 19 16 20 22 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -34 -18 -8 -17 -19 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 0 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 853 901 954 1029 1097 1237 1405 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.2 120.0 120.9 121.8 123.8 125.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -18. -24. -26. -26. -26. -26. -27. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.6 118.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 DANIEL 06/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 212.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 DANIEL 06/26/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING