* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP052018 06/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 24 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 24 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 26 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 5 5 4 6 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 3 3 6 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 338 329 282 277 260 241 187 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.8 24.5 24.2 23.6 23.5 22.7 23.0 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 107 104 98 97 89 91 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 50 48 47 46 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 20 20 18 30 27 37 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -21 -25 -21 -10 -18 -11 -16 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 2 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 849 880 919 985 1055 1179 1322 1482 1635 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.4 20.2 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.7 119.5 120.4 121.3 123.1 125.2 127.0 128.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -10. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. -25. -25. -27. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 117.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052018 DANIEL 06/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 DANIEL 06/25/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX