* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP052018 06/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 3 5 5 6 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 1 1 4 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 11 311 294 294 282 251 215 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.5 23.8 23.2 22.8 22.4 22.2 22.7 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 107 100 94 89 85 83 89 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 50 50 47 46 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 11 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 20 22 23 21 27 31 40 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -3 -15 -24 -24 -18 -16 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -1 -2 -3 0 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 855 862 876 927 984 1116 1236 1400 1579 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.4 20.2 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.2 118.8 119.7 120.5 122.2 124.1 126.0 128.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -20. -25. -30. -31. -32. -33. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.8 117.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 DANIEL 06/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 237.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 DANIEL 06/25/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING