* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP052018 06/25/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 35 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 35 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 36 33 28 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 3 2 5 4 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 2 3 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 19 3 4 316 288 248 221 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.5 23.8 23.1 22.7 22.4 22.2 22.4 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 107 100 92 88 85 83 86 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 55 51 49 48 46 45 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 24 17 17 25 25 35 43 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 8 0 -20 -26 -9 -13 -9 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -2 -2 -2 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 834 824 823 857 898 1017 1148 1305 1467 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.4 118.0 118.8 119.5 121.0 122.9 124.9 126.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -23. -29. -30. -31. -34. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 116.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 DANIEL 06/25/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 271.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 DANIEL 06/25/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING