* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP052018 06/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 39 36 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 39 36 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 39 37 33 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 2 2 3 8 7 9 12 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 5 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 33 8 342 295 274 239 238 195 185 175 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.4 24.6 24.0 23.4 22.7 22.2 22.1 22.3 22.8 23.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 117 108 101 95 88 83 82 84 90 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 52 49 48 46 49 49 46 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 10 11 12 11 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 23 22 21 26 28 28 40 28 23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 1 8 -1 -20 -16 -15 -14 -7 -20 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 2 1 3 0 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 889 871 840 851 868 949 1064 1160 1299 1475 1700 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.6 20.3 20.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.9 117.4 118.1 118.7 120.1 121.8 123.4 125.1 127.0 129.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 7 9 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -19. -26. -31. -37. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 116.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 DANIEL 06/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 249.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 DANIEL 06/25/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING