* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP052018 06/24/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 44 44 41 35 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 44 44 41 35 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 43 42 37 32 26 21 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 4 3 4 6 6 6 6 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 1 1 0 0 3 3 5 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 52 53 26 331 275 277 266 249 177 162 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.0 23.0 22.5 22.2 22.1 22.6 23.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 124 117 109 102 91 86 83 82 88 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 56 52 49 48 48 50 48 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 39 39 32 35 37 30 36 37 42 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 28 5 7 5 -13 -20 -30 -4 -14 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -4 -5 -4 -1 -1 1 4 -1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 962 932 898 879 869 910 1014 1104 1213 1393 1626 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.3 19.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.6 117.0 117.6 118.2 119.4 120.9 122.4 124.0 126.0 128.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 10 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -4. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -5. -10. -18. -22. -27. -31. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 116.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 DANIEL 06/24/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 231.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 DANIEL 06/24/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING