* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052018 06/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 32 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 32 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 11 8 7 3 6 8 8 3 8 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 0 2 2 1 2 2 7 6 8 SHEAR DIR 44 47 51 40 5 302 316 289 281 207 224 199 193 SST (C) 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.5 24.8 23.7 23.1 22.5 22.2 22.4 22.9 23.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 125 117 110 98 92 86 83 86 91 94 98 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 57 55 50 49 48 50 50 47 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 9 10 11 10 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 38 37 32 33 33 33 27 32 25 17 14 200 MB DIV 47 35 29 10 17 -13 -15 -23 -10 -21 -19 -23 -31 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 1 1 0 4 -2 LAND (KM) 1014 967 928 905 867 876 958 1068 1154 1313 1514 1721 1913 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.2 116.5 117.0 117.4 118.5 119.9 121.5 123.1 125.1 127.3 129.5 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -6. -12. -15. -18. -21. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 115.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 FIVE 06/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 168.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 FIVE 06/24/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING