* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052018 06/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 38 38 36 30 26 23 21 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 38 38 36 30 26 23 21 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 30 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 12 10 8 5 7 2 2 3 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 3 3 9 4 5 7 SHEAR DIR 50 46 50 47 36 352 305 286 346 344 213 209 183 SST (C) 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.6 24.4 23.3 22.8 22.4 22.2 22.5 23.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 133 126 118 105 94 89 85 83 87 93 97 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 60 56 53 48 48 47 46 45 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 8 7 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 52 45 41 36 39 37 33 35 30 26 30 8 24 200 MB DIV 61 55 37 27 11 -7 -19 -16 -21 -16 -33 -28 -30 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -2 -3 -4 0 1 0 2 2 7 3 LAND (KM) 1088 1010 936 897 867 844 876 964 1095 1221 1369 1573 1815 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.3 18.1 19.0 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.1 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 115.6 115.7 116.2 116.6 117.6 118.8 120.2 122.0 123.9 125.8 128.0 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -3. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 0. -4. -7. -9. -13. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 115.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 FIVE 06/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 161.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 FIVE 06/24/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING