* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 16 16 15 15 21 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 3 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 247 251 260 266 254 250 228 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.9 21.4 21.0 20.8 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 74 70 68 67 66 64 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 42 40 41 35 30 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 41 27 14 0 -16 -43 -48 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -10 -30 -25 -14 -12 4 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 1 0 5 2 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 821 830 847 875 908 973 1000 994 1018 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.3 26.3 27.1 27.8 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.1 122.6 123.2 123.7 125.0 126.1 127.1 128.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -6. -3. 1. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -0. -8. -13. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -20. -27. -33. -38. -47. -50. -52. -54. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.3 121.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.34 -0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 258.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.7% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##