* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 41 36 33 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 12 13 11 11 12 15 16 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 249 229 240 242 236 235 225 218 213 218 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.1 22.7 22.2 21.7 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.2 20.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 92 88 83 78 68 65 64 62 60 58 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 48 48 46 40 38 34 30 27 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 56 59 42 39 17 0 -17 -28 -46 -45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -11 -13 -11 -8 -22 -1 -1 4 -5 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 851 837 821 804 794 831 878 896 892 861 854 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.9 25.9 26.8 27.7 28.3 28.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.3 120.7 121.1 121.5 122.7 123.6 124.4 125.1 125.6 126.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. -12. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -29. -35. -41. -47. -51. -57. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.4 119.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.39 -0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 359.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 9.9% 3.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##