* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 44 37 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 49 44 37 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 39 35 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 9 8 11 10 11 12 12 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 1 2 2 1 1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 245 261 258 235 222 229 217 215 198 186 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.7 23.3 22.9 22.5 21.4 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 99 94 90 86 74 68 65 64 62 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 55 52 50 48 43 40 35 31 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 18 15 14 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 39 46 46 49 29 21 2 -14 -22 -46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -23 -5 -15 -20 -16 -11 -3 0 5 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 1 -1 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 809 809 812 794 775 768 822 882 892 911 909 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.9 24.1 25.1 26.1 26.9 27.5 27.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.1 119.6 120.1 120.5 121.5 122.7 123.7 124.4 125.1 125.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -18. -21. -21. -20. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -1. -5. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -18. -22. -33. -40. -47. -53. -57. -61. -62. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.3 118.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 411.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##