* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/10/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 74 67 60 48 37 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 79 74 67 60 48 37 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 78 70 62 55 42 34 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 2 1 7 6 6 7 7 10 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 183 225 240 251 233 255 261 224 207 192 180 175 199 SST (C) 26.0 25.0 24.0 23.2 22.6 21.9 21.1 20.3 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 113 103 94 87 80 71 62 59 60 61 63 61 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 59 56 55 51 50 44 39 30 24 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 22 21 20 17 15 13 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 37 32 43 64 61 40 24 14 -1 -22 -28 200 MB DIV 13 8 11 -1 -15 -27 -24 5 -4 -4 0 8 0 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -9 -9 -8 -1 -3 3 2 1 3 0 5 LAND (KM) 866 844 818 804 802 807 782 796 841 929 1025 1038 1068 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.9 22.1 23.3 24.2 25.1 25.8 26.5 27.3 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.0 117.7 118.3 118.9 120.0 121.0 121.9 122.9 124.1 125.7 127.1 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -13. -23. -32. -39. -45. -49. -49. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -18. -25. -37. -48. -57. -64. -71. -77. -83. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.7 116.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 506.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##