* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/10/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 82 78 72 57 46 35 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 87 82 78 72 57 46 35 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 86 79 72 64 49 38 31 26 22 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 4 1 1 3 5 8 7 8 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 4 4 3 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 139 187 208 196 34 324 245 230 230 231 196 198 204 SST (C) 26.5 25.6 24.6 23.7 22.8 22.1 21.7 20.8 20.1 19.9 20.0 20.3 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 120 109 100 90 81 77 68 60 59 60 64 67 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 65 64 61 58 59 53 52 47 45 37 30 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 23 25 25 23 21 18 16 13 12 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 23 48 41 44 43 53 59 45 27 8 0 -22 -24 200 MB DIV 22 28 18 15 2 -22 -8 -20 -7 0 -11 4 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -8 -10 -5 0 0 3 1 4 1 5 LAND (KM) 861 852 821 800 795 807 799 800 819 876 977 1082 1159 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.4 25.8 26.4 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.4 117.1 117.8 118.5 119.4 120.5 121.5 122.4 123.4 124.6 126.4 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 7 6 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -7. -12. -24. -33. -41. -47. -51. -53. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -12. -18. -33. -44. -55. -64. -73. -79. -85. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.2 115.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 507.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##