* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/09/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 99 94 90 72 59 46 34 26 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 102 99 94 90 72 59 46 34 26 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 102 98 91 81 63 49 39 32 26 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 6 9 8 6 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 1 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 125 115 137 162 134 21 291 245 245 244 221 220 219 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 25.8 24.9 24.0 22.7 22.1 21.4 20.5 20.2 20.1 20.3 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 122 112 102 88 82 74 65 61 61 63 66 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 63 62 56 56 50 49 45 41 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 25 27 23 23 20 18 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 21 33 45 39 48 53 67 64 49 37 19 5 -16 200 MB DIV 38 30 34 14 7 -19 -9 -20 -12 -10 6 -12 12 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -6 -9 -1 0 4 3 -1 1 3 LAND (KM) 901 877 867 847 832 826 838 834 857 914 987 1089 1163 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.8 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.5 26.1 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.7 116.4 117.2 117.9 119.1 120.2 121.3 122.4 123.5 124.6 126.2 128.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 10 9 9 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -7. -12. -24. -35. -44. -52. -57. -60. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -6. -10. -28. -41. -54. -66. -74. -81. -87. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.3 115.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 510.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##