* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 94 99 102 101 91 79 65 51 40 32 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 94 99 102 101 91 79 65 51 40 32 22 DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 93 98 98 93 77 59 46 37 30 25 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 6 6 2 2 3 5 4 5 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 -1 -1 3 1 0 -1 0 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 116 109 132 120 115 153 126 315 290 298 304 333 355 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.7 25.9 23.8 22.7 22.0 21.2 20.4 20.0 20.0 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 136 131 123 100 88 81 72 64 59 59 59 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 64 65 61 56 56 51 50 46 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 27 27 25 24 22 19 16 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 26 37 52 42 43 55 48 29 14 4 -15 200 MB DIV 82 79 54 26 24 12 -11 -41 -23 1 -3 3 -15 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -7 -3 -1 -2 0 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 984 945 913 886 875 808 817 815 796 811 854 923 968 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.5 16.1 17.0 17.8 19.6 20.8 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.0 25.7 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.4 114.9 115.7 116.4 117.8 119.0 120.0 121.0 122.0 123.0 124.0 125.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -9. -17. -25. -32. -37. -40. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 2. -1. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 14. 17. 16. 6. -6. -20. -34. -45. -53. -63. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.8 113.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 7.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 5.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 373.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.6% 31.3% 25.1% 21.8% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 64.6% 41.0% 32.7% 31.7% 23.0% 9.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 49.3% 10.5% 3.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 52.2% 27.6% 20.4% 18.6% 14.4% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##