* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 65 71 71 66 61 53 45 38 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 55 65 71 71 66 61 53 45 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 48 51 59 64 65 59 50 42 34 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 4 3 9 7 5 1 1 8 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -4 -7 -6 -7 -5 0 2 0 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 295 251 265 248 211 152 146 195 84 317 242 249 252 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.2 24.5 23.1 22.2 21.5 20.6 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 151 147 143 136 125 107 92 83 75 66 60 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 68 67 67 66 65 60 59 56 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 24 26 25 24 23 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 33 31 34 25 33 18 11 13 17 15 3 200 MB DIV 105 104 101 82 64 42 63 17 -1 -12 -12 -17 -7 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -4 -4 -4 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1044 1035 1033 1042 997 916 866 818 801 821 769 756 776 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.6 16.0 17.5 19.0 20.3 21.5 22.8 23.9 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 111.8 112.3 113.0 113.6 114.8 116.0 117.2 118.4 119.5 120.3 121.2 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 33 26 19 16 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 44.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 16. 16. 16. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 30. 36. 36. 31. 26. 18. 10. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.2 111.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.93 11.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 6.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 3.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.5% 54.9% 41.7% 32.8% 23.7% 39.1% 32.7% 10.9% Logistic: 56.8% 80.5% 75.4% 72.9% 65.7% 75.1% 42.7% 4.6% Bayesian: 26.1% 63.7% 31.7% 13.7% 5.7% 11.3% 4.1% 0.1% Consensus: 35.8% 66.4% 49.6% 39.8% 31.7% 41.9% 26.5% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##