* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP042018 06/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 56 61 65 68 71 72 73 74 76 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 41 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 44 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 7 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 357 5 6 357 340 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 169 169 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 73 74 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 4 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 27 49 62 55 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 58 75 90 83 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 62 37 12 -28 -68 -139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 16 14 53 54 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 21. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 99.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##