* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP042018 06/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 53 56 60 65 68 71 72 72 74 75 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 43 38 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 46 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 2 347 344 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 168 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 71 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 20 22 43 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 53 52 50 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 81 47 13 -16 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.4 99.2 99.0 98.9 98.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 15 9 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 21. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 11. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 99.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##