* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP042018 06/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 44 49 55 60 65 67 69 71 74 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 33 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 7 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 9 357 358 355 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 168 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 19 19 20 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 42 32 42 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 67 35 3 -26 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.3 99.1 99.0 98.9 98.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 17 15 53 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 25. 30. 32. 34. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 99.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 69.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##