* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042018 06/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 37 45 53 59 61 64 67 69 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 33 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 13 13 12 9 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 2 3 -1 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 2 2 12 10 13 358 14 11 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 168 168 167 167 167 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -53.5 -52.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 8 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 72 71 71 73 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -15 -7 5 9 29 38 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 39 39 34 28 55 62 75 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 109 97 86 64 43 0 -44 -84 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.8 99.6 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.7 98.6 98.6 98.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 20 19 13 54 55 52 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 31. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 15. 23. 29. 31. 34. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 99.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 69.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##