* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042018 06/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 41 49 55 60 62 64 67 69 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 41 49 55 60 62 64 67 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 44 49 55 61 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 11 13 16 15 11 8 15 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 352 1 11 25 39 46 56 48 24 44 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 166 167 167 166 167 167 167 165 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.6 -53.4 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 8 10 8 10 8 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 79 76 74 72 69 68 67 67 68 69 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 0 -8 -22 -13 -7 21 30 45 44 55 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 41 43 55 33 10 37 47 71 32 46 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 167 153 140 134 129 90 71 51 30 14 4 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.2 100.4 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.3 100.1 100.1 100.3 100.4 100.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 22 22 23 23 23 19 17 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 32. 34. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 100.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 00 UTC ##