* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 34 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 38 34 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 38 33 29 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 2 5 7 7 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 1 2 3 5 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 322 42 106 151 161 168 169 176 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.3 22.5 22.3 22.4 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 99 97 94 86 84 84 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 63 60 58 50 43 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 11 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 22 21 8 -12 -22 -26 -6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 2 -3 4 -1 -13 -8 -24 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 1 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 426 454 500 547 558 617 731 858 982 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.5 21.4 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.8 113.7 114.5 115.3 116.9 118.5 119.9 121.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -16. -21. -30. -38. -43. -45. -46. -46. -45. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.5 111.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 215.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 10.6% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##