* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 40 35 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 47 40 35 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 47 41 36 33 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 4 7 10 12 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 0 2 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 304 152 158 179 175 177 173 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.4 22.6 22.3 22.3 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 99 97 96 87 84 83 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 64 64 65 62 57 53 46 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 21 14 2 -18 -21 -18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 2 1 -7 -1 -12 -11 -32 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 2 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 399 401 426 470 518 572 696 830 936 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.5 21.5 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.8 112.7 113.6 114.5 116.3 118.1 119.6 120.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -4. -3. -1. 1. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -20. -25. -36. -45. -53. -56. -57. -57. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.4 110.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 242.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 11.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.8% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##