* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 64 59 51 42 33 24 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 64 59 51 42 33 24 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 71 66 61 56 47 39 32 27 22 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 1 3 1 2 6 7 8 8 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 0 1 0 1 1 3 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 89 320 10 49 190 171 169 154 148 185 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.4 24.1 24.1 23.7 23.4 22.8 22.7 22.8 23.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 111 106 103 103 99 95 88 87 89 91 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 72 68 65 66 63 59 56 49 42 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 24 21 25 21 -3 -12 -14 17 37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -4 -10 6 2 -4 -10 0 -30 -25 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 3 4 7 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 372 445 415 416 437 516 588 648 748 881 1038 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.7 110.6 111.5 112.3 113.9 115.5 116.8 118.1 119.6 121.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -23. -27. -29. -29. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -16. -24. -33. -42. -51. -57. -60. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.6 108.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 277.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##