* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 85 85 84 76 68 57 46 36 28 25 23 V (KT) LAND 75 82 85 85 84 76 68 57 46 36 28 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 83 80 76 65 55 46 38 31 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 7 5 0 2 4 5 8 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -2 -2 1 1 1 3 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 73 59 51 83 187 188 159 158 160 147 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.1 23.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 130 123 117 113 106 102 98 95 92 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 68 70 65 66 60 59 51 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 16 14 14 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 19 28 34 30 19 24 10 -1 -11 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 36 45 23 -11 -1 -5 -12 -17 -17 -29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 -4 -4 -3 -5 -1 0 1 2 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 260 279 332 388 449 432 489 564 624 717 847 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.2 20.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.8 107.8 108.7 109.6 111.3 113.0 114.4 115.8 117.2 118.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 10. 9. 1. -7. -18. -29. -39. -47. -50. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 105.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 5.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 211.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.2% 27.6% 22.1% 18.9% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 37.3% 24.2% 10.8% 5.3% 1.8% 7.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.5% 18.0% 11.2% 8.2% 6.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##