* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 59 62 63 64 60 56 49 44 37 31 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 59 62 63 64 60 56 49 44 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 54 57 59 59 55 49 42 36 31 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 3 8 8 2 2 3 4 7 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -3 0 1 3 1 1 5 4 9 SHEAR DIR 21 22 50 119 129 95 141 269 256 189 209 192 161 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.3 26.7 25.4 24.2 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 141 137 131 117 104 95 92 91 89 87 89 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 6 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 75 75 72 69 66 65 62 59 54 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 18 18 16 18 16 16 14 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 14 13 22 39 29 35 26 5 -3 0 27 200 MB DIV 39 54 56 37 38 13 -6 17 -10 -3 -21 -29 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 -2 -5 -10 -1 -1 2 2 9 LAND (KM) 255 232 230 245 242 315 422 383 426 529 601 723 854 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.4 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.4 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.5 104.4 105.3 106.2 107.9 109.5 111.1 112.7 114.3 116.0 117.5 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 12 10 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 4. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 18. 19. 15. 11. 4. -1. -8. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.5 102.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 58.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.7% 29.2% 22.8% 19.4% 16.4% 20.8% 17.6% 8.3% Logistic: 19.5% 39.2% 21.7% 14.9% 7.3% 20.2% 13.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.4% 22.7% 7.3% 3.5% 1.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 30.4% 17.3% 12.6% 8.4% 14.2% 10.5% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##