* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 29 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 26 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 26 29 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 233 229 219 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 27.3 27.1 25.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 139 137 124 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 8 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 25 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 46 61 72 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -4 -7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 71 52 -75 -193 -361 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 26.3 27.7 29.5 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 109.9 109.8 109.5 109.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -1. -11. -23. -33. -40. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -22. -27. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.9 110.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##