* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 34 34 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 33 32 35 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 30 30 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 7 9 8 10 22 27 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -1 0 1 -3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 247 252 251 258 237 234 217 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.4 24.0 23.9 23.8 26.4 26.4 23.4 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 105 101 100 100 128 130 99 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 4 4 5 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 62 63 64 59 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 14 13 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 29 18 30 26 33 44 32 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 13 12 3 9 34 43 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -6 -5 -2 4 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 141 69 -1 -31 61 -112 -413 -671 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.7 22.3 23.0 23.6 25.7 28.5 31.7 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.6 109.8 110.0 110.1 110.0 109.6 108.7 107.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 9 12 15 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -11. -17. -21. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -13. -17. -17. -16. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -12. -18. -25. -29. -32. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.1 109.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 12.2% 9.8% 8.9% 5.1% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.1% 3.3% 3.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##