* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 37 34 30 24 20 18 17 19 21 V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 37 34 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 40 37 34 32 30 24 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 5 6 4 13 23 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -5 0 -1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 278 244 236 228 239 235 224 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.0 25.1 27.6 25.5 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 111 107 104 102 114 142 120 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 6 4 6 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 63 61 64 63 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 58 33 23 28 27 34 43 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 17 17 17 19 44 45 27 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 0 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 317 252 188 118 48 37 -20 -271 -520 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.5 24.4 27.0 30.0 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.2 109.4 109.6 109.8 109.9 109.7 109.0 108.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 11 14 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. -5. -9. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -15. -21. -25. -27. -28. -26. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.2 109.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 145.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 15.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 5.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##