* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 41 39 35 24 27 25 26 27 27 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 41 35 35 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 45 41 38 36 29 29 25 26 26 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 1 4 5 6 9 20 19 27 37 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 0 6 1 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 178 214 251 245 223 242 237 225 230 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.7 24.3 24.3 26.2 27.0 24.8 19.4 17.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 112 108 104 105 126 135 113 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -50.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 66 64 65 65 57 54 46 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 21 20 19 16 7 9 12 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 46 58 45 30 37 41 56 36 60 37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 33 31 23 26 23 41 55 50 14 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 18 52 23 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 333 279 209 139 -14 74 -88 -351 -626 -999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.7 23.2 25.3 27.8 30.8 33.9 37.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.0 109.2 109.4 109.6 109.8 109.9 109.7 108.9 107.2 104.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 9 11 14 16 18 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -0. -8. -16. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -18. -16. -11. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -15. -26. -23. -25. -24. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.6 108.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 131.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 17.8% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 6.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##