* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 50 47 46 40 36 32 27 27 32 34 35 V (KT) LAND 60 54 50 47 46 40 37 32 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 52 47 43 40 35 33 28 26 26 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 2 7 8 5 17 17 24 29 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 2 0 8 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 326 231 223 229 196 239 243 238 226 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.0 24.8 27.3 26.1 22.6 17.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 116 111 107 102 111 138 126 91 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 5 4 5 5 8 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 67 65 65 65 64 66 63 55 52 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 21 17 16 11 7 8 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 48 53 37 38 21 42 30 25 43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 26 28 17 21 25 31 51 39 27 19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 0 -1 -2 0 -6 13 13 40 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 340 337 317 261 206 69 16 52 -139 -476 -875 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.1 22.3 24.1 26.3 28.9 32.1 36.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 108.9 109.0 109.3 109.5 109.8 109.9 109.9 109.6 108.1 105.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 8 10 12 15 20 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 0 0 0 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -10. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. -5. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -7. -4. -3. -1. 2. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -4. -6. -13. -19. -16. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -14. -20. -24. -28. -33. -33. -28. -26. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.2 108.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 165.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##