* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 51 46 46 42 38 36 32 25 25 28 30 V (KT) LAND 65 56 51 46 46 42 34 36 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 54 47 43 40 36 32 30 26 26 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 4 6 9 7 17 20 31 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -3 0 -2 1 2 1 -5 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 344 300 230 226 242 242 248 224 238 222 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.0 24.5 23.9 23.6 24.6 26.9 25.1 18.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 118 111 105 100 98 109 134 117 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -49.8 -49.9 -50.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 62 64 64 66 63 53 52 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 20 23 21 19 17 11 6 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 29 33 52 61 39 40 28 53 35 86 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 35 20 19 9 37 26 34 35 33 43 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -11 20 45 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 355 354 356 300 246 133 -2 41 -1 -283 -579 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.7 23.1 24.9 27.2 30.4 34.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 108.9 109.1 109.4 109.7 109.9 110.1 110.3 110.3 109.6 108.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 8 10 14 19 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -2. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -9. -13. -16. -16. -14. -12. -9. -5. -3. -1. 3. 6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -14. -19. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -14. -19. -19. -23. -27. -29. -33. -40. -40. -37. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.9 108.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 195.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING